Conspiracy: Take The Crown Finance Review

Is it set review time again already? You bet! While I’m feeling a tad fatigued after a summer full of new Magic sets, I’m still really excited to draft Conspiracy: Take the Crown. The original Conspiracy set is one of my all-time favorite expansions, and it sure seems like Take the Crown will live up to the hype.

But Conspiracy: Take the Crown cannot be evaluated like a normal Magic set. There’s a far higher than average number of reprints. Many of the new cards don’t do anything outside of Draft or Cube. Nothing is legal in Standard or Modern unless it’s already been printed in a Standard or Modern legal set.

Because of that, there is a risk of overrating cards that simply won’t find a home in any of Magic’s competitive formats. The bar is just absurdly high.

In Standard, she would have been format-defining. In Modern, she would have been playable in the right deck. In Legacy…I don’t know, maybe the right deck will come along if we’re lucky?

It appears as though Wizards of the Coast did not want to risk the set not selling packs due to mediocre new cards, so they loaded Conspiracy with a bunch of high-quality reprints and a couple of juicy Eternal plants. That isn’t to say that none of the other cards will end up being expensive or important in Eternal formats, but I’m not going to spend a bunch of time going over the possible upside of, say, Custodi Lich. Most of the cards in this set have no chance of seeing competitive play and their price tags will reflect that.

At any rate, Conspiracy: Take the Crown is already packed with an amazing amount of value. Let’s start by taking a look at some of the set’s most exciting inclusions. If you’re pumped for Conspiracy: Take the Crown, it’s probably because of—

The Reprints

· Berserk – $59.99

· Show and Tell – $49.99

· Burgeoning – $14.99

· Inquisition of Kozilek – $9.99 (from uncommon to rare)

· Birds of Paradise – $7.99

· Platinum Angel – $7.99

· Burning Wish – $7.99

· Ghostly Prison – $7.99

· Phyrexian Arena – $5.99

· Desertion – $3.99

· Horn of Greed – $3.99

· Avatar of Woe – $3.99

· Exotic Orchard – $2.99

· Gratuitous Violence – $2.99

· Pariah – $2.99

· Serum Visions – $2.99 (From common to uncommon)

· Dragonlair Spider – $1.99 (From mythic to rare)

· Hallowed Burial – $1.99

· Kami of the Crescent Moon – $1.99

· Followed Footsteps – $1.99

· Forgotten Ancient – $1.49

· Duskmantle Seer – $0.99 (From mythic to rare)

· Wild Pair – $0.99

· Spirit of the Hearth – $0.99

· Sangromancer – $0.99

· Harvester of Souls – $0.75

· Guul Draz Specter – $0.49

· Covenant of Minds – $0.49

· Hamletback Goliath – $0.49

· Hundred-Handed One – $0.49

· Sphinx of Magosi – $0.49

· Psychosis Crawler – $0.49

Wow, there are some real heavy hitters here.

Since Conspiracy: Take the Crown won’t make any of these cards Modern- or Standard-legal, the important thing when evaluating these reprints is to figure out which cards on this list will be hurt the most by a massive increase in supply. Cards that are in multiple Tier 1 decks are at a premium here, as are cards that are good in both competitive and casual formats. Cards that have a lot of their value tied up in scarcity will be at the greatest risk of losing value.

Of these cards, I am most bearish about Berserk and Burgeoning. Berserk is generally a two-of in Legacy Infect, and it will have its share of interest, but I suspect that there isn’t nearly enough of a market for it to sustain a price anywhere near $60. It’s expensive because it was only printed in Alpha, Beta, Unlimited, and an old From the Vault set. A future price tag closer to $20 than $60 makes sense to me. Burgeoning is probably a future $5 card—it’s good in Commander, but it’s only expensive because it was printed once, way back in Stronghold. Supply will more than meet demand this time around.

Show and Tell is another card that is likely to fall based on increased supply, albeit not by as much. Show and Tell is played in a greater variety of Legacy decks, and each of those decks tends to run the full set of four. It’s also a lot more attractive to casual and Commander players, who go nuts for effects like this. I expect it’ll end up cheaper than $50, and I’d hold off on buying any copies right now, but I’d be surprised if it ends up under $30.

Inquisition of Kozilek, on the other hand, is played in dozens of top-tier Modern decks. It’s one of the most important cards in that format, and every serious Modern player needs a set of these. I’ve heard people say that Inquisition will drop to $4 once enough Conspiracy is opened, but I think some of that is latent price memory from the card’s previous life as an uncommon. There are a lot more copies of Thoughtseize out there thanks to Theros, and that one is still a full $20. If Inquisition goes anywhere near $4, I’m buying a bunch. It may even prove that $10 ends up being a good deal for Inquisition of Kozilek once all is said and done. Ditto Serum Visions, which might be underpriced as a $3 uncommon.

Birds of Paradise, Phyrexian Arena, Exotic Orchard, and Hallowed Burial are all cards with enough casual demand to sustain a new printing every three to four years. Right now, some of that scarcity is still baked into the price, and they’re all a tad higher than I expect them to be once a bunch of Conspiracy packs are opened. I’m targeting all these cards in the $1-$3 range, and I suspect they’ll all make fine long-term holds.

The Best New Cards in the Set

Sanctum Prelate – $29.99

Woof. Sanctum Prelate was obviously designed to shake up Legacy, and I have no doubt that it will.

How will the format adjust? At the moment, it’s hard to say. Storm has certainly gotten worse. Miracles has likely gotten worse, unless it can adjust to run Sanctum Prelate itself, in which case it may have gotten better. The white-based Eldrazi decks are a lot more intriguing. Death and Taxes has certainly gotten better, as has any other deck that can take advantage of a 2/2 for 1WW. I don’t know about you, but I’d like to have some stock in Flickerwisp; Thalia, Guardian of Thraben; Stoneforge Mystic; and Aether Vial right about now. Karakas and Wasteland may also emerge from their Eternal Masters printing slump at some point soon as well.

As for the actual price of the Prelate, $30 is about right long-term. I think you’ll be able to get these for $15-$20 once people realize that they aren’t playable in any other format, but I’d certainly make sure to buy four of these by the end of 2017 if you’re a Legacy fan.

Recruiter of the Guard – $29.99

It’s worth noting that this is not the second coming of Imperial Recruiter in Legacy—it’s an entirely different card. The Aluren decks might readjust to use Recruiter of the Guard (perhaps with Arctic Merfolk?), but it cannot fetch Painter’s Servant and those decks will probably keep using Imperial Recruiter. More on that a little lower in the article.

Most (all?) Death and Taxes builds will certainly want this, and Flickerwisp is about to become an even more important part of the Legacy metagame. This also might enable a new sort of U/W Stoneblade strategy—not only does Recruiter of the Guard get Stoneforge Mystic, it can grab Vendilion Clique, True-Name Nemesis, and Monastery Mentor.

Much like Sanctum Prelate, I can’t see a world where Recruiter of the Guard is a straight-up miss in Legacy. This card will be good, and it will be valuable. It’s a rare, though, and it’s worth reminding everyone yet again that these cards will not have any demand from Standard or Modern players. I bet you’ll be able to grab these for $10-$15 at some point soon. And just like Sanctum Prelate, I suspect it’ll end up being a great long-term buy.

Daretti, Ingenious Iconoclast – $19.99

I don’t see Daretti, Ingenious Iconoclast making a large impact in Legacy or Vintage. I might be wrong—three-mana planeswalkers are always worth considering, and Tezzerator players are rightly excited about this—but the 1RB mana cost is rough, the tokens can’t attack, and the -1 ability doesn’t provide any card advantage unless you want the artifact to be sacrificed for some reason. I could see Daretti showing up as a two-of here and there, but he’s no Dack Fayden.

In Commander, the specific color commitments hurt Daretti here. I can’t stick him in either my Esper artifact deck or my mono-red artifact deck built around the other Daretti. Players will find homes for him, but I suspect this will be more of an $8-$10 card based on how narrow it is.

Kaya, Ghost Assassin – $19.99

Kaya, Ghost Assassin might be the coolest card in the entire set. Like I said earlier, though, she is seriously hurt by not being legal in either Standard or Modern. Legacy doesn’t have room for many four-mana planeswalkers that don’t end with “the Mind Sculptor,” and Kaya doesn’t do anything against combo decks. If the format becomes more about “fair” interaction, I can see Kaya making an impact. As is, I expect her to end up in the $10-$12 range thanks to Commander and Cube demand.

Leovold, Emissary of Trest – $11.99

I suspect that Leovold, Emissary of Trest is more playable in Legacy than either of the planeswalkers in Conspiracy: Take the Crown. That mana cost might be too much to overcome, but the effect is dynamite in a deck like Shardless Sultai. Not only does it shut off your opponent’s card draw, it makes cards like Wasteland and Rishadan Port much more of a losing proposition.

Can a three-mana creature with a nearly impossible casting cost and no enters-the-battlefield effect actually show up in a legitimate Legacy brew? I don’t know. If not, this is a very narrow Commander card that should end up around $5-$6. If so, it’s a staple mythic with a long-term shot at hitting $15-$20. I’m going to wait and see what the brewers come up with before I put my money where my mouth is here. If Leovold shows up in a winning deck or two, though, I’m buying.

Expropriate – $5.99

Time Stretch is a $12 card thanks to Commander play, but that card is both more scarce and more powerful. Expropriate will probably end up as a $6-$8 Commander mythic at some point, but I suspect it has further to fall before we get there. I’m also skeptical about any card that needs four to five players in a game before it really starts becoming playable.

Queen Marchesa – $4.99

Queen Marchesa is flavorful, but she’s only playable in Mardu (or four- or five-color) Commander decks and she doesn’t really combo too many existing strategies. She’ll have a small audience of players who really love her. Those folks will mostly want foils, which could be worth $10-$15. I suspect her non-foil future is as a $3 mythic.

Selvala, Heart of the Wilds – $4.99

Selvala isn’t powerful enough to crack the roster of Legacy Elves or anything, but she’s an auto-include in nearly every green-based Commander ramp deck out there. Card advantage and absurd amounts of mana in a single three-drop? Sign me up. She’s a bargain at $5, especially in a world where green mythic Commander staples like Vorinclex, Voice of Hunger are almost $25. If foils are under $15 at release, I’m buying a copy immediately.

Grenzo, Havoc Raiser – $3.99

If more people built aggressive decks in Commander, Grenzo might be one of the chase rares in Conspiracy: Take the Crown. As it stands, Grenzo, Havoc Raiser isn’t powerful enough for Legacy and is only going to see play in a certain kind of casual deck. He’s a legendary Goblin, though, and the effect he provides is both unique and powerful. I’d target foils here, and I suspect he might end up as a fairly popular Commander. Non-foil copies will probably end up closer to $2, though.

The Conspiracies

· Hymn of the Wilds – $2.99

· Sovereign’s Realm – $3.99

· Hold the Perimeter – $0.49

· Weight Advantage – $0.49

Some people will want the conspiracies for their Cube, but since they aren’t playable in most forms of casual or multiplayer, the supply will vastly outstrip the demand. I expect the mythic conspiracies to be bulk mythics, the rare conspiracies to be bulk rares, and the non-rares to be true bulk.

What about foils? Well, the two rare conspiracies from Conspiracy (there were no mythic conspiracies in that set) still have value, with Worldknit currently worth $7 and Backup Plan at $9 thanks to Cubers. Those same people will want the foil conspiracies from Take the Crown, so it’s worth assuming that the rare and mythic foil conspiracies will end up being worth at least $6-$7 with mythics potentially higher. I wouldn’t go nuts trying to get all of these right away, but it’s worth picking up underpriced copies locally if you can find them.

The “Draft Matters'” Rares

· Paliano Vanguard – $0.99

· Arcane Savant – $0.99

· Archdemon of Paliano – $0.99

· Volatile Chimera – $0.49

· Caller of the Untamed – $0.49

Much like with the conspiracies, these “Draft matters” cards will almost assuredly end up as bulk rares. There is just no way there won’t be way more of them than there are people who want them for Cube or some other casual Draft variant.

The best “Draft matters” cards from the original Conspiracy set are probably Deal Broker and Lore Seeker. Those foils are worth $6 and $9 respectively, so the best of these should have a significant modifier as well. Caller of the Untamed is probably the best, but I can imagine a home for all five of these in the right Cube. They aren’t as universal as the artifacts from Conspiracy, though, and I’d suspect foils will end up closer to $5 than $10.

Other Low-Value Rares and Mythics

· Subterranean Tremors – $1.99

· Regal Behemoth – $1.99

· Adriana, Captain of the Guard – $0.99

· Capital Punishment – $0.99

· Custodi Lich – $0.99

· Keeper of Keys – $0.99

· Protector of the Crown – $0.99

· Skyline Despot – $0.99

· Stunt Double – $0.99

Do any of these cards have a shot? Subterranean Tremors might be decent in Cube, though most of my red decks there either want to have a lot of artifacts or are way too aggressive for this. Regal Behemoth has a mana-doubling ability attached to it, albeit a risky one, which means that it might have some long-term Commander appeal. It’s also possible that the Monarch ability is either being underrated or future sets will build on it and make some of these creatures more desirable. For now, though, I’m pretty sure these are the set’s future bulk rares and mythics.

I know that there are some cards I wasn’t able to get to in this review—as of this writing, the set was only partially spoiled, so I wasn’t able to evaluate everything. If there’s a card I missed or something you’d like me to talk about in greater depth, hit me up in the comments and I’ll do my best to get to your questions next week.

This Week’s Trends

In Standard, Todd Anderson’s first-place finish on The SCG Tour® at the Classic the previous weekend showed the world the power of the U/R Thermo-Alchemist deck. This was actually one of the top-finishing decks at the Pro Tour, too – if Pedro Carvalho had earned a slightly better Draft record, we’d have all learned about the power of this deck a couple of weeks earlier.

Creatures (9)

Lands (24)

Spells (27)

Regardless, Collective Defiance, Fevered Visions, and Thing in the Ice were among the week’s biggest Standard gainers alongside the deck’s lands and key uncommons. I’m not sure the deck can survive the loss of Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy at rotation, and I’d sell into the hype unless you’re planning to run this sweet brew yourself.

Also last week: Chris Botelho piloted his Grixis Pact deck to a fifth-place finish at Grand Prix Portland.

Planeswalkers (2)

Lands (26)

Spells (32)

While neither Demonic Pact or Harmless Offering saw major price spikes (alas, set rotation is just too soon!), the deck is sweet enough that you might be able to trade these cards slightly over retail at your next FNM.

Otherwise, Standard was pretty quiet last week. Kozilek’s Return and Nissa, Vastwood Seer saw moderate gains, and a few other cards are down a bit—Emrakul, the Promised End; Spell Queller; Gisela, the Broken Blade; Grim Flayer; Rattlechains; and Thalia, Heretic Cathar. These are normal post-PT post-hype drops, and I expect them to level off a bit as we approach Kaladesh preview season.

In Modern, Dredge prices continue to climb. Greater Gargadon, Bridge from Below, Bloodghast, Conflagrate, and Golgari Grave-Troll are the big winners from Ross Merriam’s Modern Open win.

Creatures (29)

Lands (19)

Spells (12)

What could be next? Mana Confluence seems due for a spike, and I’d make sure to pull Insolent Neonate out of your bulk. If the deck has staying power, it might end up as a $1-$2 common at some point.

Thanks to the creation of Recruiter of the Guard, Aluren saw a major spike last week as well. This makes sense—the Imperial Recruiter – Aluren deck was mostly held back by a lack of copies of Imperial Recruiter, and the fact that Recruiter of the Guard will be easy to acquire moves the choke point back to Aluren. It’s a Reserved List card, remember, so its current retail price of $40 might be more permanent than you might think. I’m only selling if someone at my local shop is willing to overpay a little.

Keep in mind that Imperial Recruiter isn’t worthless now. Recruiter of the Guard can’t tutor for Painter’s Servant, and some versions of the Recruiter deck may still want a full eight copies of the effect. I’d hold off selling now, and I’d consider buying if someone in your playgroup wants to panic-sell their copies.

Bloodbraid Elf is currently legal on the MTGO beta, which is pretty shocking. On one hand, Jund is already excellent in Modern and it doesn’t make much sense for WotC to unban Bloodbraid Elf right now. On the other hand, this is exactly how we found out about the Splinter Twin ban last year. I’d buy a set of Bloodbraid Elves ASAP just in case.

Deals of the Week

The headline at the moment is 50% off all the bulk rares and bulk mythics in Standard. While it takes a lot longer for these cards to pay off than it used to, I always tend to pick up a handful of playsets when the price is right. At $1.50, very few bulk mythics look like attractive buys. At $0.75, cards like Greenwarden of Murasa and Sire of Stagnation become intriguing long-term casual targets. It’s also not a bad week to think about picking up rotating cards with a long shot at Modern play. Den Protector was a Standard staple and it’ll likely be a Commander staple as well eventually. Will it see play in Modern? Unlikely, but at close to nothing on the current sale I’m all over a playset for my long-term box. Heck, even Sarkhan Unbroken, one of the bigger disappointments of the past few sets, looks like a heck of a buy at right around two bucks. At some point, you will be able to trade it away for more than that to some ecstatic Dragon-loving casual mage.

Comments from Last Week

What do you think about the double-sided foil tokens from the Eldritch Moon prerelease? I can’t see them printing something like that again any time soon.

– Cameron McLachlan

I agree, Cameron. The best part of the tokens is that they are simple 2/2 Zombies—every black mage in the world is going to want a handful of these because they’re useful with approximately a thousand different cards. Currently, the tokens are sold out at $5 and I can see them eventually ending up somewhere between $12 and $15, though that might take a couple of years. Regardless, it’s a pretty safe long-term investment.

Are Prerelease foils still more valuable than set foils, or has that changed now that we’re used to the new way Prerelease foils are distributed?

– Ben Cottee

Great question! Prerelease foils are undoubtedly rarer than their set foil counterparts, but are they actually worth more?

Now that the dust has settled, it appears as though the Prerelease foils are often cheaper than their set foil compatriots. Best case, the prices are identical. Worst case (like with Archangel Avacyn), you can save a full $10 by opting for the Prerelease card instead of the set foil.

Why is this? I suspect it has to do with how causal players and Cube/Commander players feel about foils. Some likely prefer their foils to be cleaner and dateless for purely aesthetic reasons. Others may still feel like Prerelease cards have a certain cheapness to them—likely a remnant of the years where Prerelease cards were uniformly terrible. Some may feel like the date mark makes them an artifact of a certain event that they didn’t participate in, like a souvenir from a show that they didn’t actually see.

Prerelease foils might see a resurgence in the future once more collectors realize how much more scarce they actually are, but for now I can safely say that you want the set foil 100% of the time when you’re given a choice between the two.

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